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麗珠醫藥(1513.HK)近期會議交流紀要及解讀
uSMART盈立智投 12-20 15:36

總結:

1.核心產品方面,艾普拉唑明年業績存在一定壓力,艾普拉唑針劑剛經歷談判降價,從156降價到71。2019年談判降幅遠低於行業,2019和2021兩次降幅幅度加在一起還是合適的。目前降幅能否保證有一定利潤的情況下,加快醫院的拓展。預計針劑明年銷量翻倍增長,意味着收入端持平,費用端可能有一定抵扣,利潤可能15%左右片劑預計還是有20%-30%增長。亮丙瑞林從婦產科拓展到兒科、腫瘤科、男科,市場越做越大。去年市場份額超過原研的武田。預計明年還會有10%-20%增長;促卵泡:今年恢復性增長,去年受疫情影響較大。明年預計會是10%上下的增長。輔助生殖有新產品上市,預計後年開始貢獻較高增速;精神用藥:規模較小,幾個億。進入醫保後,成立專門銷售團隊做培育孵化,爲未來3-4年做準備。夠50%左右增速。

2.其他業務:原料藥收入超過一半品種銷往海外。利潤一半來自特色原料藥。原料藥業務利潤增長會高於集團整體增長。IVD診斷試劑去年疫情高基數,今年銷售很少。明年恢復增長。

3.整體來說,現有業務支撐明年扣非增速15%是有信心的。後年情況會好很多,多款優勢領域產品會在明年上市,後年逐步開始放量。明年的彈性主要看疫苗和手上現金投資彈性。

Q&A:

Q:疫苗國內獲批的時間節點?

可以拿海外3期的數據申報國內附條件上市。預計能在明年上半年出終期數據申報附條件上市。菲律賓預計做12000例。打了第一針的有10000例,第二針也有幾千例。

基礎免疫需要2萬多例入組,加強免疫需要1萬多例入組。

Q:目前疫苗產能是新冠專用還是產能可以轉化其他產品?

麗珠2010年就成立了疫苗公司,只不過新冠前沒有大規模做。這次做新冠疫苗主要是BD領導和中科院有相關合作。目前的產房很多是可以通用的

Q:爲什麼每一個變異株出現,都要新做一款疫苗

無法判斷現有的對變異株是否有效。針對德爾塔的正在申報,奧米克絨的正在做。

Q:麗珠生物管理層的狀況?原料藥板塊是否會和試劑、生物藥板塊一樣分拆?

總裁直管,有些資源可以傾斜。原料藥不會做分拆。

Q:疫苗產能?

35億劑原液,15億針劑。

Q:天津同仁堂經營狀況,IPO狀況

業務上:老字號,有一定經驗、資源

財務上:投資的財務收益是比較好的。每年幾千萬分紅是有的。

Q:收入增速?

收入會略低於利潤增長。明年幾個拉動主要在輔助生殖、精神、原料。疫苗也可以期待明年曲譜瑞林、託珠單抗、精神類有兩個上市

Q:做微球企業不多原因?技術門檻還是市場規模?

一些大分子的藥品,沒辦法放進微球顆粒,限制了一些品種做成微球。壁壘也很高。

微球真正的難點稱研發上,而在產業化上。

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