You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
機構2022年港股展望:綠電行業兼具穩定性與成長性,看好互聯網板塊估值修復

國信證券認爲,港股將在2022年走上修復之路。在修復主線上:互聯網、高等教育、電信運營、大消費都將呈現不錯的估值修復機會;在成長路徑上:SaaS與人工智能,新能車/汽車智能化,綠電將保持較好的成長性。

全球:加息概率增加,美股波動將會加大

2022年全球將面臨增速回落,通脹壓力進一步凸顯,美聯儲將會啓動加息週期。我們將疫情的反覆看成是大概率事件,加息很難一蹴而就,而是加息與觀察通脹水平變化之間,還將有個反覆斟酌的過程。儘管如此,貨幣邊際收緊,股市估值高位,通脹這三重壓力,將加大美股波動。

國內:寬貨幣、穩信用,全年振盪局面

本輪經濟週期的特徵:1、疫情的不斷反覆;2、大宗商品週期的作用;3、民生政策的強化;4、宏觀槓桿與全球相比留有餘地;5、新舊動能轉換呈現加速局面。我們用產量、價格兩種方式劃分了基欽週期,儘管這樣的劃分方式不常見,但都能給我們以啓發,前者側重傳統經濟,後者側重新經濟。在2022年的絕大時間裏,基欽週期將處於收縮階段。

儘管歷史上類似週期中(2008、2012、2015、2018),熊市多於震盪市,但我們判斷2022年國內的信用觸底反轉+美國加息前的寬鬆貨幣,會爲A股創造出類似「寬信用」的局面,此時的市場走勢積極,預期樂觀。然而一段時間之後信用的階段性回落以及美國加息,都將成爲「寬信用」延續的障礙,這樣會形成全年的震盪走勢。

遠景:智能時代的啓航

從三次科技浪潮的極簡投資模型中,我們得到的啓發是:把算力當成一種信仰,並乘風大浪潮,是可以如此卓越!

伴隨並行運算的成熟,汽車算力首次達到了人腦量級,標誌着算力革命進入到一個新時代,我們稱之爲「智能時代的啓航」。雲計算、無人駕駛、元宇宙,是我們看到的智能時代的三大應用主線。智能化、開放化、仿真化、去中心化是智能時代的重要特徵,這些特徵聚集在一起,將在未來的5-10年深刻影響世界,它們帶來的福祉的同時,也同時帶來技術、金融、社會治理等多方面的挑戰。 

投資建議:修復與成長

由於互聯網反壟斷以及房地產債券違約風險,港股在2021年表現不佳。恆指也從高股息特徵轉向擁抱新經濟,未來還將深化這一過程。

我們認爲港股將在2022年走上修復之路。在修復主線上:互聯網、高等教育、電信運營、大消費都將呈現不錯的估值修復機會;在成長路徑上:SaaS與人工智能,新能車/汽車智能化,綠電將保持較好的成長性。

風險提示

宏觀經濟復甦低於預期的風險,疫情反覆的風險,美聯儲加息風險,中美貿易關係的不確定性,科技戰的風險。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account