國君銀行:“適時降準”將明顯利好銀行股
本文來自格隆匯專欄:國泰君安證券研究,作者:張宇、劉源
1. 此次“適時降準”是否符合預期?
基本在預期之內。四季度以來伴隨經濟下行壓力加大,市場對降準頗有期待。碳減排工具推出後,市場降準預期有所下降,但主要是預期時點後移,不會落空。此外,三季度貨政報吿的相關表述,也進一步強化了貨幣政策的邊際寬鬆傾向。
2. 此次“適時降準”對銀行股是利好還是利空?
與7月不同,此次“適時降準”對銀行股是明確利好。
降準客觀説明了經濟承壓,需要穩增長。但降準對銀行股的影響方向,則取決於經濟下行壓力是否被充分預期。
7月降準前,市場對經濟動能走弱有察覺但並不十分悲觀,政策表態也偏穩定。驟然降準使市場意識到,經濟實際運行情況可能比想象中還差,進而加劇了對銀行信貸需求和資產質量的擔憂。經濟預期下修導致銀行股在7月降準後走弱。
但當前,市場對年底及明年上半年經濟下行的悲觀預期已經相當充分,銀行股前期疲弱走勢也已充分反應這一點。“適時降準”順時應勢,有望改善經濟預期和銀行股的投資邏輯。
3. 此次“適時降準”如何利好銀行股?
①引導銀行穩定甚或加大信貸投放,提振“量”的邏輯;
②做實社融底部,推動社融增速拐點更快到來,從而改善經濟預期,優化“風險評價”的邏輯;
③利好銀行負債端成本下行,穩定“價”的邏輯。
綜上,我們認為此次“適時降準”有別於7月,對銀行股將構成明顯利好。繼續重點推薦寧波銀行、平安銀行、招商銀行和“大小蘇”(蘇農銀行、江蘇銀行)。
風險提示:宏觀經濟預期外下行
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