交銀國際洪灝:港股明年跑贏全球指數機會大,看好三大板塊
近日,交銀國際董事總經理、研究部主管洪灝表示,現時估值比去年3月更低,經歷一年半的復甦,認爲經濟不會較去年差,若內地和香港通關,對香港經濟有明顯幫助,情況不會比去年差,現時市場很大程度反映市場恐慌,又指「底是最兇險,看得到找不着」,與其撈底,不如將投資視線放長,才能忍受短期波動,看好互聯網、消費及能源股。
今年港股表現爲全球最差,洪灝認爲,相信港股估值會修復,認爲科技股目前估值水平甚至比一些公用股低,估計港股明年跑贏全球概率大,疫情對經濟仍有影響,但這幾年與病毒對抗、科學建立、個人對疫情預期轉變,未對疫情對前景的影響感到悲觀。
洪灝稱,明年可關注互聯網及消費行業,並繼續看好能源股,因相關板塊盈利防禦性強,目前投資者的組合依然偏低配,未反映經濟週期放緩的趨勢。
對於美股,則認爲,雖然從流動性看,美國雖然縮減買債,但資產負債表沒有收縮,只是放慢擴大,現時市場流性仍充足,變相「逼住你買股票」,而美股盈利增長一向以3年爲一個週期,現時則位於最高點,明年增長放緩無可避免,並預期通脹明年下半年階性放緩,美股明年回調機率大,風險及回報並不匹配。
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