大摩:企業盈利增長逐漸放緩,美股牛市恐止步於感恩節
摩根士丹利股票策略師Mike Wilson發表報告指出,預計明年美股企業盈利增長放緩的幅度將超過華爾街的普遍預期,當前美股牛市行情最多隻能持續至感恩節。
Wilson寫道:「我們不禁回想起一年多前我們的立場,當時我們主張企業盈利增長要比普遍預期的快得多。我們當時認爲,創紀錄的財政刺激措施實際上是政府對企業超額盈利的補貼。」
「而在今日,我們發現自己再次站在共識的對立面,但原因是相同的。由於我們認爲,在去年市場共識沒有看到這一邏輯,現在看來似乎有可能忽略了必然結果。」
「簡而言之,我們認爲,隨着需求在明年初轉弱,以及個人可支配收入同比大幅下降,企業盈利增長放緩將更爲嚴重,持續時間將比預期更長。」
Wilson還補充道,低收入人羣的消費者信心正在下降,個人儲蓄已經耗盡,降至疫情前的水平。

Wilson表示,企業盈利放緩,再加上美聯儲收緊政策和對通脹的擔憂,最終將阻止美股上漲。
Wilson最後總結道:「隨着美聯儲開始收緊貨幣政策和企業盈利增長在明年進一步放緩,部分企業的利潤和基本面開始惡化。不過,由於散戶投資者不斷將過剩資金投入,資產價格還在持續上漲。」
「與此同時,由於強勁的季節性趨勢和在每年這個時候美股的持續高漲,我們所說的許多機構投資者正出於這些技術原因保持充分投資。如果我們的分析是正確的,我們認爲這種看漲趨勢會持續到感恩節,但不會太久。」
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