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港股投資機會凸顯,四季度港股有望補漲

來源:證券時報網

被貼上「價值窪地」標籤的港股逐漸成爲市場關注焦點,公募佈局港股基金的步伐不斷加快,下半年以來已有30只基金先後啓動發行,同時,爲了增強投資者信心,還有基金公司自購旗下新發基金。

展望四季度,公募人士認爲港股行情值得期待,外部擾動已有所緩解,國內政策和監管方面也出現了積極的進展,港股逐步進入佈局期,特別是已跌至歷史估值區間底部且存在政策利好的龍頭科技標的,投資機會凸顯。

公募密集佈局港股基金

Wind數據顯示,四季度以來,有7只港股基金陸續啓動發行,包括廣發滬港深精選、萬家滬港深藍籌兩隻主動偏股基金和平安中證滬港深線上消費主題ETF、鵬華中證滬港深科技龍頭等5只被動指數型產品。其中,萬家基金在萬家滬港深藍籌混合基金首募當天以自有資金認購該基金1000萬元。

拉長時間來看,下半年以來已有30只港股基金先後啓動發行,涉及18家基金公司。對比整個上半年,啓動認購的港股基金有32只,顯然下半年以來港股基金髮行節奏明顯加快。

從成立情況看,下半年啓動發行的港股基金中已有18只產品宣告成立,南方港股通優勢企業、易方達港股通成長兩隻偏股混合型基金首發募資分別達42.07億元、30.32億元。

數據顯示,更多滬港深基金在路上,易方達中證港股通醫藥衛生綜合ETF、華泰柏瑞中證滬港深品牌消費50ETF等3只產品即將於本週內進入發行期。

事實上,近期不少公募基金經理已經提前對港股「下手」。9月份張坤管理的「易方達中小盤」更名爲「易方達優質精選(QDII)」,將港股市場掛牌交易的企業納入投資範圍;近期擅長低估值策略的基金經理丘棟榮明確表示看好港股中的價值股,中庚價值領航近期將召開持有人大會,在基金投資範圍中增加港股通標的。他認爲,當前港股估值較低,是配置港股中價值股的較好機會。

四季度港股有望補漲

對於四季度港股走勢及投資機會,公募人士普遍比較樂觀,認爲港股四季度存在很大的補漲機會。

近期外圍市況偏震盪,但恆指表現還算穩健。在港股市場中,近期多數板塊展開了超跌反彈行情。其中,美團、阿裏巴巴、騰訊控股等科技股表現不俗,近5個交易日累計漲幅均在10%左右。10月18日,港股尾盤拉昇,三大指數均收復盤中跌幅。

業內人士預計,港股四季度存在很大補漲機會,相較於美股和A股市場,港股估值具有吸引力。騰訊、美團等科技股若能繼續領漲,有望進一步激發港股市場人氣。另外,南向資金自9月底以來全面轉爲淨買入,從側面反映了外圍資金面的偏好。

在萬家滬港深藍籌擬任基金經理劉宏達看來,除估值水平外,AH股溢價指數也是市場用來衡量A股、H股投資性價比的指標。劉宏達表示,AH股溢價指數往往能夠反映兩個市場投資情緒的熱度。溢價率靠近150時,表明市場對於港股極度悲觀,對於A股相對樂觀;溢價率接近110時,則表明市場對於港股更加樂觀。

「從這個指標來看,在數值接近150時應該投資港股;在接近110的時候應該投資A股。歷史上,AH股溢價指數共有三次觸及150,每次達到150後,港股都會在未來一段時間大幅跑贏A股。目前,AH股溢價率在144、145,已經接近歷史極高值。」劉宏達稱,無論從情緒面還是基本面的角度來看,對於明年的港股都比較樂觀,「今年四季度是佈局港股非常好的時機」。

華南一位公募QDII基金經理表示,美國盈利改善及通脹壓力緩解推動美股反彈,疊加國內政策利好預期升溫,共同影響港股市場上漲,其中消費板塊和成長風格領漲。「我們預計短期市場將繼續盤整,消化諸多不確定性。不過,考慮到H股市場、尤其是成長板塊相比其他市場存在一定優勢,港股逐步進入佈局期。」

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