《大行報告》摩通:招行(03968.HK)股價調整 市場憂內地理財產品估值要求變更
摩根大通發表研究報告指,招行(03968.HK)股價在上周四(8月26日)回調4.3%,跑輸H股銀行平均約3.4個百分點,認為可能是由於近期股價表現出色、市場擔心銀行理財產品的估值方法可能發生變化,以及私人銀行業務增長放緩。
該行指,內地當局提出「共同富裕」主題,為近期政策重點,銀行的財富管理產品估值方法的潛在變更,可能會增加資產淨值波動,並導致資金從理財產品重新分配到共同基金。考慮到招行是中國銀行中最大的基金分銷商,第三方金融產品分銷對上半年收入貢獻達10%,而其自身理財產品僅貢獻2%,因此政策改變對招行發展影響為中性。
摩通相信,在「共同富裕」的主題下,招行或將成為銀行業中的主要受益者之一,指出政府可能會鼓勵中國資產管理行業的發展,為家庭創造財富增值渠道,因此招行為其中資銀行中的行業首選。
該行認為市場對對招行前景過度憂慮,假設銀行理財產品的競爭力下降,若投資者將銀行理財產品的資產重新分配給第三方管理人管理的共同基金,招行仍將受益,予目標價85元,評級「增持」。
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