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通信行業預期觸底,看好反彈行情

本文選編自“光大證券研究所”。

報告摘要

通信板塊回顧

20年CS通信指數下跌8.7%,21H1延續下跌態勢,下跌幅度6.1%,市場預期進一步探底。

市場預期達歷史冰點

市場認爲:1、5G後面沒有6G,行業缺乏長邏輯;2、5G缺乏應用,流量增長放緩,基站建設低於預期;3、通信公司缺乏核心競爭力,質地不及其他行業。

看好板塊反彈行情

我們認爲,市場已形成一致預期,我們更應該在共識中尋找改變可能。1、5G將地面無線網絡性能做到接近極致,但並不代表無線通信技術已沒有發展空間;2、人類對通信需求長期存在,新網絡應用的大量出現只是時間問題;3、通信類公司資產也具備其價值。同時我們認爲,目前時點配置通信板塊具備較優賠率。

5G建設板塊具備反彈機會

1)主設備商:板塊情緒處於低位,主設備商龍頭中興中報預告超預期,下半年運營商5G建設回暖,因此我們看好主設備商反彈機會。2)光模塊:海外電信運營商市場需求反彈有望接力雲廠商需求,光互聯趨勢帶動光模塊節點數量持續增加,網絡端口速率提升帶動光模塊向更高速率遷移,光模塊仍爲光通信板塊最具成長性賽道,我們看好光模塊反彈機會。

5G應用板塊具備長邏輯

1)運營商:我們認爲,市場在關注物聯網賽道時,對於物聯網模組、物聯網平臺給予了較高的關注度,而低估了網絡層運營商的市場潛力,隨着物聯網連接數的快速上升,運營商受益不斷增加。2)專網及企業通信:現有鐵路專網以2G爲主,業務受限於網絡性能,鐵路5G專網建設預期提升。5G時代臨近,企業網絡設備及終端有望迎來新一輪的升級迭代。2)網絡可視化:工信部發佈網絡安全三年行動計劃,網絡安全重要度日益提升,相關投資有望增加。

風險分析:5G商用進度不及預期、產業鏈降價超出預期、中美貿易摩擦升級。

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