盈选报告 | 泡泡玛特创新高，高估值还能延续多久？
在一片高估值的质疑声中，泡泡玛特走的异常坚定，上市首日以79%的收盘涨幅让错过打新的投资者捶胸顿足，今日更是暴力拉升14%，盘中股价高见88.8港元，超过了首日的最高价，市值达到1230亿，上市7日累计涨幅达到128%。
小小的盲盒何以撑起千亿市值？是一时的情绪炒作还是有坚实的基本面？
泡泡玛特的护城河——全产业链布局
泡泡玛特是潮玩行业中唯一一个实现全产业链闭环的公司，涵盖了IP孵化、产品设计、全渠道销售三大环节。
公司在IP孵化运营的布局领先于行业，已经积累了较强的设计端优势，这也奠定了公司可以持续优质、高效地推出新IP的基础，为收入的稳定增长提供保障。
渠道销售是潮流玩具产业链中收入最多的环节（价值占比约 40%），也是与消费者交互的重要节点。目前泡泡玛特有零售店、机器人商店、线上、批发和展会五种销售渠道。
截至2020年上半年末，公司拥有136家零售店，1001家机器人商店，中信建投证券预计到2022年末国内零售店/机器人商店数量341/2977家，海外零售店/机器人商店数量100/1000家。多渠道运营可以推动公司快速扩张。
未来成长空间怎么看？
光大证券认为，目前盲盒潮玩核心市场仍然在一二线城市的女生群体，未来有望向低线城市及男性和儿童客户渗透，随着渗透率的提升，测算市场空间约200亿元。展望泡泡玛特的未来，同时借鉴海外潮玩龙头成长的得与失，认为泡泡玛特有望通过海外市场的开拓、IP内容运营的完善以及IP线下变现生态的打造，突破市场天花板，聚焦更大的市场。
按照既有的商业模式，未来3年公司的成长空间确定性较高。
光大证券预计公司20-22年收入将实现26.95/43.54/61.53亿元，同比增长60%/62%/41%，归母净利润为7.5/12.6/18.5亿元，同比增长65%/69%/47%。中信建投证券预计公司20-22年收入为23.21亿、41.81亿和72.94亿，增速分别为37.88%/80.14%/74.45%。
泡泡玛特被高估了吗？
截至今日收盘，泡泡玛特的PE（TTM）已经达到了218倍，事实上对于这类高成长性的行业龙头，又缺乏对标公司，PE的参考意义有限。只要下一两个季度的财报亮眼，保持高速增长，市场就会为长期的高估值买单。
光大证券认为公司高成长期的PEG估值应该处于1.5-2倍区间，对应21年PE区间为103-138倍，给予“增持”评级。
多家券商也一致看好，中信建投证券认为公司将内容IP、线下体验、社交圈层三个要素集合为一体，从小众产品成长为目前广受年轻用户群体追捧的潮流，首次覆盖并给予买入评级。
长城证券认为潮玩行业处于从小众走向主流的阶段，发展空间充足；公司作为率先打通潮玩产业链的潮玩龙头，公司有望引领行业发展。短期看，公司仍处于高增阶段，线下渠道扩张空间充足。长期看，随着IP运营能力的不断成熟，公司IP变现途径将不断丰富，同时开启海外扩张战略，成长空间进一步打开，首次覆盖并给予“推荐”评级。
西南证券考虑到潮玩行业规模成长迅速，公司作为行业先行者渠道铺设初具规模，IP来源充分且变现能力增强，首次覆盖给予“持有”评级。
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