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CIMC VEHICLES(01839.HK)COMMENTARY:PENDING GEM IPO LIKELY LEADS TO H-SHARE VALUATION RERATING
格隆汇 06-25 00:00
CIMC Vehicles announced that it plans to launch an initial public offering(IPO) of A-shares on the GEM of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the nearfuture, with preliminary inquiries scheduled on June 23 and online &offline subscriptions starting on June 29. After an A+H dual listing, theCompany will be automatically included in the Southbound Stock Connectpool, which may significantly boost the liquidity and trading volume of itsshares to warrant potential valuation rerating. The Company is the globalleader in semi-trailers and truck bodies, with significant advantages inscale, technology, and industrial presence, and we expect its market shareto further increase. We assign a target price of HK$10.09 and maintain the"BUY" rating. The planned GEM listing heralds potential valuation rerating of its H-shares. The Company plans to launch an IPO on the GEM of the Shenzhen StockExchange in the near future, with preliminary inquiries scheduled on June 23and online & offline subscriptions starting on June 29. At present, theCompany's H-shares have relatively small floating market cap and lowliquidity, so the valuation is suppressed. After an A+H dual listing, it will beautomatically included in the Southbound Stock Connect pool, which maysignificantly boost the liquidity and trading volume of its shares to warrantpotential valuation rerating. The global leader in semi-trailers and truck bodies. The Company's main business is semi-trailer and truck body manufacturing,and is the global leader in the business. In 2020, its semi-trailer sales reached131k units, ranking first in the world for eight consecutive years. Thepenetration rate of specialized transport vehicles such as refrigeratedsemi-trailers and van semi-trailers are expected to increase. Under theinfluence of policies such as GB7258 (Technical specifications for safety ofpower-driven vehicles operating on roads) and stricter overload rectification,the industry's competitive landscape is expected to be significantly optimized. As the industry leader, the Company will likely further increase its product unitprice and market share. Scale, technology and industry layout build the core competitiveness. In terms of scale, the Company is the world's largest semi-trailermanufacturer, backed by CIMC Group for centralized procurement, and thescale effect is significant. The advanced "lighthouse factory" can significantlyimprove product quality and reduce production costs. Technically, theCompany has accumulated profound technological strength and participatedin the formulation of national standards. It can quickly adapt to therequirements of regulatory changes and industry technology upgrades. Interms of layout, the Company deeply binds key customers, and hasestablished a joint venture with Shaanxi Heavy Duty Automobile, adevelopment base with FAW, and the "Hongyan Ruijiang" brand jointly withSAIC Hongyan. The Company has successful global investment experienceand a wide range of overseas operations. It will likely replicate its successfulpath in the US in Europe and other regions. Recovery of overseas economy supports quick business recovery. As the US and the EU are gradually recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic,the Company's overseas business is expected to gradually recover. At thesame time, both the EU and the US have passed large-scale economicstimulus plans. The long-term budget of EU during 2021 and 2027 will reachEURO1.1trn. The US has passed a US$1.9trn economic stimulus plan, and furtherinfrastructure investment stimulus may follow. Large-scale economic stimulusis expected to significantly stimulate various production and consumerdemand, and drive the recovery of the European and American heavy-dutytruck and semi-trailer markets. It is expected that in 2021, the Company'sNorth American/European plants will gradually recover from the impact of thepandemic. Potential risks: The prices of raw materials continuing to rise rapidly, the US anti-dumping andanti-subsidy investigations on the Company's products, downward pressureon macroeconomic growth; the sales of heavy-duty trucks and semi-trailersoverdrawn in advance; the implementation of infrastructure stimulus policiesfalling short of expectations; the impact of overseas pandemics; the escalationof Sino-US trade frictions; the reshuffle and integration of SDC Trailersmissing expectations. Investment recommendation: With the implementation of new regulations to optimize product structure,product unit price increase, and profitability enhancement, the Company'ssemi-trailer and t truck body business is expected to achieve furtherdevelopment. The Company has a well-established layout in the Europeanand American markets and is expected to significantly benefit from therecovery of overseas economies. The Company is the global leader insemi-trailers and truck bodies, with significant advantages in scale, technologyand industrial layout, and its market share is expected to further increase. Wemaintain 2021E/2022E EPS forecasts at Rmb0.76/0.83, and add 2023E EPSforecast of Rmb0.98. The current stock price corresponds to 8.8/8.1/6.8x PEfor 2021E/22E/23E. The Company's dual listing on the A-share market isimminent, and its H-shares embrace potential valuation rerating. We assign11x 2021E PE to derive a target price of HK$10.09, and maintain the "BUY"rating.
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