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《大行》高盛降新地(00016.HK)目標價至96元 評級「買入」受惠地產周期轉勢
阿思達克 09-05 10:06
高盛研究報告指出,新地(00016.HK)今年6月底止下半財年每股基礎盈利3.93元,按半年增長9%,按年則降11%,並較高盛預期低7%。收入比高盛預期低出24%,主要因物業發展(DP)入賬及其他非物業業務低於預期。 高盛表示,新地物業發展收入較該行預測低出39%,因香港及內地市場入賬低於預期。然而,EBIT高於高盛預期,歸因於內地業務較高的利潤率。公司層面,高盛預測明年6月底止2026財年物業發展利潤率為13%,並在2027至2028財年逐步恢復至15%及18%,受惠於行業觸底回升。 考慮新地下半財年業績、管理層指引及最新入賬計劃後,高盛將新地2026至2028財年每股基礎盈利預測,分別下調14%、12%及2%,股息預測下調4%、下調3%及上調3%。預計未來三年平均派息比率約49%,相較過去五年平均約52%,管理層重申股息派發比率上限為50%。 高盛預測新地2026財年股息將因基礎盈利增長而按年降4%,並在2027至2028財年以每年4%的速度增長,基於市賬率(P/B)對資產收益率(ROA)/淨資產收益率(ROE)的12個月目標價下調8%,從104元降至96元,維持「買入」評級,因認為新地將持續受益於香港物業市場週期逐步轉勢等。
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