《大行》花旗料比亞迪(01211.HK)下半年每車淨利反彈 目標價233元 評級「買入
花旗研究報告表示,比亞迪股份(01211.HK)(002594.SZ)今年第二季淨利潤為63.6億元人民幣,低於市場共識預期及該行預測;花旗估計比亞迪今年次季每車淨利降至約4,900元人民幣,低於今年首季的8,700至8,800元水平。
花旗估計,比亞迪今年次季的基礎折舊與攤銷費用,按季度增長10億至14億元人民幣;財務收入按季下降5.7億元人民幣;其他淨收入與支出按季差額為負1.5億元人民幣。
花旗研究指,比亞迪今年上半年的每車固定成本(折舊與攤銷+研發費用),按半年變化與總出貨量按半年變化的比率為1.34倍(即每車固定成本增長25.9%源於銷量下降19.3%),假設8月至12月比亞迪每月按月增長保持5%、7.5%、10%的穩定趨勢,下半年出貨量應達234萬、249萬、266萬輛(按半年增長9%、16%、24%)。
若花旗維持上述1.34倍比率,今年下半年每車固定成本(折舊與攤銷+研發)應按半年下降12%至32%,意味每車固定成本減少3,600至9,500元人民幣,推算今年下半年每車淨利應反彈至8,500至14,400元人民幣,汽車業務下半年淨利在數學推算上將達到200至400億元人民幣。
花旗以2025至2027財年淨利複合年增長率43%,應用2025年市盈率與增長率比率0.8倍,得出目標價233港元,意味今明兩年市盈率35倍、22倍;評級「買入」。
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