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《大行》匯研升翰森製藥(03692.HK)目標價至47元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 08-28 15:10
匯豐環球研究報告表示,翰森製藥(03692.HK)今年上半年業績強勁,收入及盈利按年分別增長14%及15%,超出該行預測。匯研預計,公司創新產品線在今個財年將達到82%;亦預計憑藉公司強大的臨床階段資產,將達成更多業務發展交易。匯研仍認為翰森製藥估值具吸引力,考慮到其高比例創新藥及進一步業務發展的上升潛力。 匯研預計,公司今年上半年業務發展收入為17億元人民幣(下同),包括來自葛蘭素史克(GSK)的抗體藥物偶聯物(ADC)里程碑收入8億元,其餘來自默沙東(MSD)的GLP1預付款;並預計葛蘭素史克將於今年下半年啟動B7H3 ADC海外三期臨床試驗,2026年上半年啟動B7H4;亦預計默沙東將啟動GLP1小分子一期臨床試驗。 對於中國的創新藥,匯研預計阿美樂在一線治療及輔助治療的銷售持續增長,到2025年預估達到60億元,銷售額高峰料達80億元;亦預計CD19將於2026年上半年擴展至IgG4相關疾病及廣泛性重症肌無力(gMG),以及GLP1/GIP、B7H3 ADC、B7H4 ADC等於2027至2028年推出。憑藉強大的臨床階段產品線,該行預計近期將有更多業務發展機會。對於仿製藥,預計銷售額從2025年預估的25億元下降至2028年的23億元。 匯研將公司2025至2027年收入預測上調6%至7%,將研發費用預測上調18%至28%。因此,匯研將公司2025年淨利潤預測上調4%,並將2026至2027年預測下調4%至6%,預測2025至2027年收入分別為147億、157億及174億元,盈利分別為50億、48億及54億元。 匯研繼續使用現金流折現(DCF)模型估值,得出新的目標價,從45港元上調至47港元,隱含28%的上行空間;維持「買入」評級。
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