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《大行》招商證券國際:財報季建議重點關注超預期業績 翰森製藥(03692.HK)及百濟神州(ONC.US)表現領先
招商證券國際研究報告指出,美國4月2日「解放日」關稅宣佈,對全球股市產生廣泛影響。然而,自4月8日全球股市受此影響觸底後,生物科技板塊顯着回暖。多數中小市值生物科技公司股價從低點上漲100%至400%,顯示市場對其管線資產和財務實力預期極低。 招商證券國際表示,超額表現主要源於中國生物創新藥對全球跨國藥企的授權出海活動,同時也反映了之前大部分港股中小市值標的,其市值已經脫離基本面,在流動性銳減和出通的多重壓力下股價超賣。 該行續表示,大型生物製藥公司(市值500億美元以上)過去主力引進接近獲批的後期臨牀化合物以補充管線。近年則轉向早期臨牀項目,如I/II期甚至臨牀前/技術平臺。該行預計心血管代謝/免疫炎症,及呼吸系統疾病領域將追趕腫瘤/肥胖領域,成爲大型藥企進一步BD(商務拓展)或併購的重點。 2025年,該行開始看到賽諾菲(Sanofi)、再生元製藥(REGN.US)和Madrigal(MDGL.US)等此前在中國合作較爲低調的廠商出現。在未來幾個季度,該行預計安進(AMGN.US)、吉利德科學(GILD.US)、福泰製藥(VRTX.US)和部分日本藥企如:第一三共(4568.JP)、安斯泰來(4503.JP)、武田(4502.JP)等也會參與中國資產交易。 招商證券國際對「解放日」後香港醫療保健各個子板塊表現進行總結,如該行2025年展望所預測,生物製藥、生物科技服務作爲表現領頭的細分板塊,展現出卓越的超額收益;隨着財報季臨近,該行建議投資者重點關注超預期業績,首選個股分別有:翰森製藥(03692.HK,增持)、百濟神州(06160.HK)(ONC.US,增持)、康諾亞-B(02162.HK,增持)、訊飛醫療科技(02506.HK,增持)。
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