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大新金融:內地主要經濟指標均放緩 中央或需要加大力度支持房市回穩
阿思達克 08-15 17:58
大新金融集團首席經濟及策略師溫嘉煒稱,內地7月主要經濟數據進一步放緩,並遜於市場預期。需求面方面,7月零售銷售按年升幅放緩1.1個百分點至3.7%,為去年12月以來最慢增速,亦遜於市場預期的4.6%。當中餐飲、金銀珠寶及日用品收入增速輕微加快;家電及音響設備銷售升幅放緩;汽車銷售則由升轉跌,按年下跌1.5%,為去年8月以來最差;石油及製品類銷售跌幅擴大,並創2020年11月以來最大跌幅。 首七個月固定資產投資按年上升1.6%,較首六個月放緩1.2個百分點,根據該行計算7月單月出現按年倒退5.4%。當中礦業、製造業及基礎建設投資增幅均有所放緩。房地產開發投資按年跌幅進一步擴大0.8個百分點至12%,根據該行計算7月單月跌幅擴大至17%,為逾一年半以來最大單月跌幅;商品住宅銷售額跌幅亦進一步擴大至6.2%。7月新建商品住宅樓價按月跌幅擴大0.04個百分點至0.31%。 供應面方面,7月工業生產按年升幅放緩1.1個百分點至5.7%,製造業及採礦業生產增速均有放緩,電力、熱力、燃氣及水生產則有所加快;服務業生產按年升幅略為放緩至5.8%。7月城鎮調查失業率上升0.2個百分點至5.2%。 整體而言,內地主要經濟指標均放緩,或受到內地多個省份出現極端天氣影響導致停工停課,加上出口商因中美暫緩關稅而趕出貨的情況有所減退,導致各項數據同步轉弱。另一方面,購物節及消費補貼效果有所消退,消費及投資均錄得按月倒退,或反映內需乏力。整體房地產領域弱勢加深,中央可能需要加大力度支持房地產市回穩。該行認為,中央嚴格打擊各行各業內捲及產能過剩情況,不排除繼續限制工業生產。內地整體貸款需求仍然疲弱,近日推出消費貸款貼息措施,能否刺激消費亦需時觀察。該行暫時維持內地今年經濟增長4.5%的預測。
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