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《大行》摩通:消費貸補貼政策料對內銀財務影響有限 薦招行(03968.HK)
國務院公布個人消費貸款貼息政策和服務業經營主體貸款貼息政策,摩根大通發表研究報告指,當局宣布將為個人消費貸款及八類經營主體的資本開支與營運資金貸款提供利息補貼,相信有助於刺激相關貸款需求,但預期對銀行財務影響有限。 根據該行測算,若銀行消費及合資格服務業貸款增長10個百分點,對2025年全年收入升幅僅帶來約0.4%的正面影響。但摩通亦指,政策信號仍屬正面,反映當局正著手解決經濟結構失衡問題,有利於改善市場情緒。 在所評級的銀行股當中,摩通預期平安銀行(000001.SZ)若能管控相關貸款信用風險,或將受惠最多,同時相信招商銀行(03968.HK)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)及中國銀行(03988.HK)亦能受惠,較推薦風險管控能力較強的招行。
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