惠譽:新興市場在美國貿易波動中助力中國港口及出口增長
惠譽評級表示,2025年第二季度,中國港口貨物吞吐量按年增長5%,快於2025年第一季度增3%;增長主要受益於歐盟和新興市場需求走強,繼而支撐沿海和內河港口吞吐量攀升。儘管如此,在美國關稅不確定性的背景下,貿易波動風險猶存。
2025年第二季度,中國出口總額按年保持6%的強韌增速,而2025年第一季度增速為5.7%。對歐盟和新興市場(包括東盟、非洲和拉丁美洲)吞吐量有所增加,助力抵消了4月加徵關稅生效後對美國出口按年驟降23.9%。
2025年第二季度,上海出口貨櫃運價指數(SCFI)和中國出口貨櫃運價指數(CCFI)按季分別降7%、14%。下滑的主要原因是運力供應過剩,而且這因持續的貿易摩擦而加劇。
儘管原定於8月中旬到期的貿易戰休戰已展期90天,但兩國的談判尚未敲定長期關稅協議。休戰進一步展期有望對貿易量形成支撐,但再次加徵關稅的風險依然很高。惠譽預期,未來數季度波動將持續,中美貿易量的下行風險仍處於高位。
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