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《大行》匯豐研究降國泰(00293.HK)評級至「減持」 目標價下調至8.9元 面臨雙重收益壓力
阿思達克 08-07 10:40
匯豐環球研究報告指出,國泰航空(00293.HK)今年上半年EBIT總額59億港元,按年持平,按半年降18%;EBIT利潤率按年減1個百分點,按半年減2.4個百分點至10.9%。EBIT利潤率下降受經營開支增加及收益率下滑影響。 報告表示,國泰航空的乘客收益率面臨阻力,受其長途航線持續增加航班影響,該航線收益率本質上低於短途航線。此外,管理層強調,乘客收益率也因其航班組合中,轉機乘客比例不斷增加而被稀釋,該類乘客收益通常低於點對點乘客。匯豐認為這在未來幾年,將對乘客收益率造成結構性壓縮。 此外,該行對貨運下半年展望因多重逆風而不明朗,貿易緊張的不確定性威脅需求,特別是跨太平洋航線,而隨著客運航班持續正常化,腹艙運力的增加將壓低貨運費率。潛在的需求疲軟與運力增加結合下,預示貨運收益至年底將持續承壓。 匯豐研究將國泰航空2025至2027年經常性盈利預測下調9%至12%,因乘客及貨運收益下降及經營開支上升。下半年,匯豐預計國泰EBIT按年減28%,按半年減11%至53億元。匯豐的2025至2027年經常性盈測較市場預期低出19%至21%。 因盈利預測下調,匯豐將國泰目標市賬率倍數從1.05倍下調至1.02倍。隨著EBIT在2024年下半年達峰後回落,匯豐認為國泰航空在乘客及貨運收益雙重壓縮下,中期盈利上行空間受限,並將目標價從9.4元下調至8.9元,評級從「持有」下調至「減持」。
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