中信證券談A股此次調整：換擋調速很正常，牛市所有人都會起舞
中信證券微信公衆號發文，最近兩天，算是A股本輪行情的第一次真正的調整。不算意外，甚至有利於減輕一部分朋友們的牛市焦慮。如何看待這次調整？中信證券提出四點看法：
第一，牛市，也會換擋。回顧此前兩次牛市行情，會發現牛市途中換擋調速，不算什麼新鮮事。上證指數在2007年4月17日首次站上3600點後，經歷了多次調整，其中2次超5%、1次超15%、1次超20%。在2015年從3600點邁向5178點的牛市行情中，短短58個交易日內就出現過2次超10%的回撤。最終，行情都在犀利的調整過後，迎來新高。
第二，3600點以上，波動加大。2007年牛市期間，站上3600點後，滬深300、上證指數、深證成指的日均振幅均擴大48%以上。2015年牛市期間，站上3600點後，所有主要指數的日均振幅均擴大45%以上，尤其是萬得全A、創業板指的振幅更是擴大了79.8%、91.9%。
第三，氛圍形成了，所有人都會起舞。2007年牛市期間，100%行業翻倍，100%行業漲超200%，50%的行業漲超500%。2015年牛市期間，100%行業翻倍，69%的行業漲超200%。
第四，追漲，牛市也能虧錢。假設從今年4月8日大漲起，每週五以收盤價買入當日漲幅排名前1%的個股（剔除一字板個股和當日新股）：最終策略收益-5.48%，同期滬深300上漲15.65%，跑輸21.13%。牛市，是追不上的，是靠好眼光、好心態等出來的。
另外，對於當下的市場所處的階段，中信證券總結兩大特點：第一，資金熱度高。從數據來看，A股已連續70個交易日破萬億；兩融規模節節走高，截至7月30日，融資規模已達到1.97萬億元，爲近10年新高。
第二，估值水平較低。從市盈率角度來看，30箇中信一級行業中，仍有20大行業的動態市盈率（剔除成分股負值）處於歷史前50%低分位，佔比66.7%。高於歷史80%時間的只有國防軍工、房地產和綜合。3600點的A股，大部分行業算不上貴。
原文請看： https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4DrpvbgCnyWT02dDfAJ0Fw
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