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《大行》花旗:內銀次季盈利壓力緩解 農行(01288.HK)交行(03328.HK)或跑贏同業
花旗發表研究報告指,內銀第二季盈利壓力較首季緩解,但盈利能力仍偏弱,部分銀行或好過預期。花旗預期所覆蓋的中資銀行上半年收入按年跌幅收窄至0.1%,對比首季下跌1.3%,主要由於淨息差(NIM)壓縮幅度減小及交易收益壓力緩解,估計上半年盈利有望實現按年持平,而首季同樣下跌1.3%。該行預測所評級銀行上半年平均NIM爲1.54%,對比首季爲1.57%。 在大型國有銀行當中,花旗相信農業銀行(01288.HK)及交通銀行(03328.HK)可繼續保持領先同業的盈利增長,預期工行(01398.HK)、浦發銀行(600000.SH)及北京銀行(601169.SH)業績可能勝預期,而招商銀行(03968.HK)或遜預期。花旗又相信,內銀或會維持逆週期撥備策略,從而爲下半年釋放撥備留出空間。
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