《大行》招商證券國際: 特斯拉(TSLA.US)汽車週期壓力猶存 降評級至「中性」 目標價361美元
招商證券國際研究報告指出,特斯拉(TSLA.US)今年第二季毛利率及淨利潤略超預期,得益新款Model Y及原材料降本提升,預計下半年新車或稀釋政策調整壓力。其中收入上,特斯拉二季度銷售汽車38.4萬輛,按年跌13.5%,按季增長14.1%,該行指出,馬斯克退出特朗普政府後銷量按季提升,下半年7,500美元補貼退坡後將有一定負面衝擊,但平價小型車量產或對沖其影響。
該行表示,毛利上,特斯拉二季度汽車毛利率14.1%,按年增加0.2百分點,按季增加2.7百分點,原材料成本下降抵消關稅升高,其次是新款Model Y二季度上市提升了售價及利潤率,減緩市場競爭對盈利的衝擊。該行又指,特斯拉能源毛利率達30.3%,按年增加5.8百分點,按季度增加1.6百分點。二季度整體毛利率達17.2%,按年跌0.7百分點,按季增加0.9百分點,整體表現穩健。該行表示,隨著監管積分取消以及OBBB(大而美法案)或負面影響高毛利率能源業務,預計特斯拉下半年整體毛利率仍承壓。
招商證券國際表示,特斯拉自動駕駛計程車「Robotaxi」,已申請佛州/灣區等多地區推廣,若獲批則有望快速加大覆蓋;奧斯丁營運面積將擴10倍,副駕安全員為加速落地而非必須。全自動輔助駕駛(FSD)將於年底部分區域開放無監督,歐美和中國同步推進監管審批;參數量將擴10倍,V12後訂閱率增長25%。
共享網絡上,招商證券國際表示,明年私家車可接入「Robotaxi」。 平價小型車將於今年上半年啟動生產,受補貼搶裝及新產線爬坡拖累,節奏低於原預期,預計今年下半年量產。人形機械人Optimus3進展順利,原型年內發布、明年量產,遠期目標年產100萬台。該行又指出,Dojo超級電腦,明年擴至10萬節點;AI5、AI6分別2026年、2027年底量產,融合車與數據中心晶片設計。
招商證券國際表示,特斯拉強調未來幾個季度業績面臨壓力,汽車短期仍承壓,維持對特斯拉盈利預測不變,但考慮汽車週期不確定性,小幅下調汽車估值,用分部加總法下調特斯拉至「中性」評級與目標價361美元。但長期仍看好公司AI+智能車及AI+機械人兩大賽道的價值,催化劑有AI日技術發布、自動駕駛營運擴大、人形機械人技術展示等,將在公司業務有重大進展或技術突破後重審基本面。
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