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《大行》高盛預計京東健康(06618.HK)第二季營收穩健 目標價升至45.8元
阿思達克 07-16 11:37
高盛研究報告指,展望京東健康(06618.HK)今年第二季,預計其營收穩健,同時保持嚴謹支出,維持該股「買入」評級,目標價由42.5元上調至45.8元,對應2026年27倍市盈率(之前為25倍),反映京東健康在藥房及醫療服務領域的強勢地位與營收可見度。 高盛認為,京東健康正迅速在一線城市(如廣州、北京)快速建設前置倉。截至今年上半年,京東健康已在全國建約40至50個,目標2025年底達約200個倉庫,同時配合集團級即時配送計劃。儘管市場競爭激烈,但高盛認為,藥品藥物類目較難透過促銷快速推動銷量,且用戶更重質量與品類。進入2025年下半年,隨著京東線下業務的持續擴張,高盛預計更高的投資和促銷力度將推動京東的O2O業務增長(儘管增長迅速,但目前O2O業務在商品交易總額中所佔比例仍然很小)。 此外,京東健康在618大促期間持續領先同行,京東集團於第二季度的用戶活躍度提升,有望帶動京東健康醫藥類別流量與交易增長。市場競爭格局仍在變動,但預期消費者購買行為將加速由線下向線上轉移,京東健康將持續在B2C與線下連鎖競爭中保持市場份額優勢。 高盛預計,京東健康在2025年第二季銷售額增長約18%、營運利潤增長約5%,考慮到逐步增加的投資。高盛相信公司對2025財年全年利潤增長持平的指引,已計入下半年顯著增加的投資,因此下行風險有限。基於更好的利潤率假設,高盛對京東健康2025利潤的預測比市場共識高6%。 高盛維持京東健康2025至2027年營收預測不變,但基於公司在成本和費用控制上的紀律,將淨利潤預估上調1%至2%。
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