《大行》高盛料美國對歐盟有效關稅率或大幅提高至26% 料歐元區GDP至明年底累降1.2%
高盛發表報告表示,由於近期歐盟與美國貿易談判的建設性基調,當美國總統特朗普上周末宣布自8月1日起對歐盟出口至美國的商品徵收30%關稅令人意外,並重新點燃市場對歐元區前景的擔憂。而擬議的30%「對等」關稅率,連同現有的鋼鐵/鋁和汽車行業關稅,以及該行預期的關鍵商品徵稅,將使美國對歐盟的有效關稅率提高至26個百分點(相較於目前實施的8.5個百分點)。該行估計,若此舉落實並持續,將使歐元區GDP到2026年底累計下降1.2%,其中大部分影響尚未顯現。歐盟可能會對30%的全面關稅採取逐步報復措施,從美國新關稅實施之日起開始,增加進一步貿易升級的風險。
儘管如此,特朗普的關稅威脅可能是一種談判策略,目前該行維持基準預測,即雙方能達成維持現有關稅率的「框架協議」,包括對所有商品徵收10%關稅,對鋼鐵/鋁和汽車徵收25%關稅。但該行仍預期美國將對關鍵商品(包括製藥)徵收25%關稅,這將使美國對歐盟的有效關稅率提高至16%。該行估計顯示,考慮到貿易政策不確定性上升的負面影響小於預期,貿易相關的GDP總影響為0.6%。雖然製造業活動數據至今表現好於預期,但這主要反映關稅前的囤貨效應,預計第二季度將消退(該行的模型顯示持平)。結合歐元持續升值,高盛預計下半年幾乎無增長(第三季度0%,第四季度0.1%),全年預測低於共識。
然而,2026年的增長前景顯著改善,主要得益於即將推出的德國財政擴張。在德國大選後,該行於3月5日大幅上調2026至27年的增長預測,並在2025年預算案公布(6月25日)後進一步提前增長提速。雖然5,000億歐元的基礎設施計劃執行速度和國防支出增長的乘數效應仍存在不確定性,但該行的分析顯示,2026年將帶來0.6個百分點的顯著增長推動,2027年為0.5個百分點。
面對接近目標的通脹和即將推出的德國財政擴張,歐洲央行目前對其大致中性的政策立場感到滿意,普遍預計在7月會議上將維持利率不變。但考慮到歐盟-美國貿易摩擦重新加劇、高盛對短期內國內外增長疲弱的預測以及通脹低迷,維持9月最終降息至1.75%的預測。如果達成有利貿易協議,歐央行管理委員會可能將利率維持在2%,但若實施30%關稅率,該行預期歐洲央行官員將比基準預測進一步降息,泰勒(Taylor)規則暗示額外20至40個基點的政策寬鬆。因此,該行的概率調整政策利率預測仍略低於市場定價。
對於歐洲市場觀點,該行利率策略師認為德國財政擴張有更多定價空間,預測2025年底10年期德國國債收益率將達到2.8%,2026年底達到3.25%。該行匯率團隊預計,鑑於歐元兌美元的低估、德國財政支持以及美國投資組合轉移,該行料歐元升值將持續,估歐元兌美元匯率將在年底升至1.2,並在未來12個月升至1.25。
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