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《大行》瑞銀:特朗普宣佈14國關稅 或拖累全球貿易及整體經濟
阿思達克 07-09 10:40
瑞銀髮表研究報告指,美國總統特朗普簽署行政命令,進一步延長對等關稅暫緩期,將實施日期從7月9日推遲到8月1日,並致函包括日本和南韓在內的14個國家,公佈將徵收25%到40%的關稅。這些關稅率不包括特定產業的關稅和其他豁免,而相關豁免仍有待確定,但可能會使大部分國家的實際稅率降低。信函中又提到,如果任何國家決定提高關稅,則相同的稅率將加到現有的對等關稅上。 報告指出,超過35%的MSCI新興市場收入來自於對外銷售或出口,其中13%的對外銷售或出口來自於美國。瑞銀估計,如果關稅全面回升,目前16%的加權平均關稅率可能增至21%,而比較去年的關稅則爲2.4%。關稅衝擊可能會拖累全球貿易及整體經濟。該行對新興市場及亞太地區作出壓力測試,檢視了關稅及相關經濟放緩對盈利的影響,預計整體水平的綜合影響爲6%至9%。該行預期新興市場的盈利將繼續下調,或限制市場整體表現。 瑞銀表示,特朗普關稅政策下,予馬來西亞和印尼市場增持評級,對南韓和泰國看法中性。馬來西亞的經濟增長可能較預測下滑10至15個基點,而印尼的風險稍低,出口風險僅佔GDP的2%。泰國可能是東盟內最脆弱的國家,因爲其出口風險較大,佔GDP的8%,而且關稅率較高。同時,雖然南韓的實際關稅率可能因豁免而較低,但由於南韓對美國出口的風險較大,預計佔GDP約28%,投資者對韓國的樂觀情緒亦可能受到影響。至於其他地區,中國仍然是該行主要的增持市場,因爲關稅的高峯期已經過去。而印度仍在談判階段,並有可能接近達成協議,因此對其防守性保持中立。
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