《大行》瑞銀上調銅價預測 升洛鉬(03993.HK)紫金(02899.HK)目標價
瑞銀表示,該行全球礦業團隊將2025及2026年銅價預測分別上調7%和4%,至每磅4.24美元及4.68美元,逆轉了此前較謹慎的需求展望,因關稅不確定性的最大影響已消退。關稅不確定性可能導致終端需求有所放緩,但瑞銀的基準情景假設未來12個月需求將回歸趨勢水平,中國需求增長放緩將被歐洲和美國傳統終端市場的復甦所抵消,後者受補庫存及長期驅動因素(包括電氣化、德國財政政策、國防和人工智能)支持。瑞銀對銅價保持相當樂觀的看法,受到供應端有利動態和長期需求驅動因素的支撐。
因此,瑞銀將洛陽鉬業(03993.HK)的2025年盈利預測上調15%,2026年上調8%。考慮到穩健的銅價及潛在強勁的銅銷售量(預計2025年第二季度銅銷售量爲17萬噸,相較第一季度的12.4萬噸),洛陽鉬業第二季度業績應表現強勁。瑞銀亦將紫金礦業(02899.HK)的2025年盈利預測上調7%,2026年上調3%,以反映銅和金價格改善,但這在一定程度上被卡莫阿(中非加丹銅鈷礦帶)產量損失所抵消。在該行的模型中,已將卡莫阿的2025至2027年產量分別下調至40萬噸、44萬噸及54萬噸。
瑞銀將紫金礦業目標價上調7%至25.3元,將洛陽鉬業目標價上調12.5%至9.9元,對兩公司評級重申爲「買入」。(ad/W)~
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