《大行》交銀國際升中燃(00384.HK)目標價至6.8元 仍有機會覆蓋每股0.5元派息
交銀國際研究報告指,中國燃氣(00384.HK)較多一次性項目影響今年3月底止2025財年盈利,明年3月底止2026財年現金流確定性仍待提高,其2025財年報表盈利按年增2.1%,核心盈利按年降約14%,低於該行預期。
交銀指,中燃2026和2027財年自由現金流仍有望覆蓋目前年度分紅,並持續關注公司對目前的自由現金流和分紅政策能否維持。交銀指,中燃估計2026財年資本開支約40億港元(按年降14%),認為在合資和聯營公司回收款項,以及對營運資金控制改善之下,公司仍有機會在2026和2027財年錄得超過30億港元的自由現金流,能覆蓋目前0.5元的每股派息(總派息27.2億元)。
交銀分別下調公司2026和2027財年盈利預測8.5%、8%,估計公司盈利在2026和2027財年分別按年上升8.5%、6.1%。估值方面,交銀認為,因公司自由現金流持續改善,上調估值至預測2026財年市盈率10倍,目標價升至6.8元,維持「中性」評級。
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