恆生:本港外貿保持韌性 私人消費續低迷 破紀錄資金淨流入及低利率料撐經濟
恆生銀行經濟研究部(環球資本市場)發表研究報告,指今年首四個月,香港出口錄得12%的強勁增長。即使在4月份,美國開始徵收所謂的對等關稅,香港出口總額仍較去年同期升15%。對美出口約佔香港出口總額的10%,初步數據顯示關稅未有對香港整體出口造成顯着的影響,令人感到意外。
不過,該行認爲,香港出口能否在今年餘下時間繼續保持強勁增長仍存在諸多不確定性。美國已就東南亞國家作爲「轉口基地」,即將貨物轉運至東南亞國家,以此作爲規避美國貿易壁壘的潛在途徑發出警告。另外,倘美國維持對中國內地和香港的高關稅,其他經濟體是否有能力消化新增的商品供應存有疑問。
正面來看,自4月以來,中美貿易局勢確是有所緩和,5月中美達成初步貿易協議,兩國經濟完全脫鉤,不太可能發生。
此外,恆生表示,儘管在第一季,對外貿易繼續爲經濟提供支持,但今年到現時爲止,本地需求仍然低迷,尤其是私人消費。2025年第一季,私人消費支出按年降1.1%。私人消費已連續四個季度處於收縮區間,爲2020年以來持續時間最長的一次。
該行稱,與典型的經濟衰退不同,私人消費減少並不是因收入下跌而起。在過去兩年實質工資保持上升趨勢,並在2024年實現了2%的可觀增長。相反,消費需求下降主要是反映資產價格下跌和經濟不確定性導致消費者信心疲軟。
恆生維持2025年香港經濟增長2.5%的預測。儘管與貿易和關稅相關的外圍不確定性仍將持續,但該行認爲,一些積極因素預計將在今年餘下時間爲消費帶來支持。
首先,過去一年流入香港的資金明顯增加,對港元資產的需求上升。累計流入香港的淨資金已從2024年初的3,660億美元大幅上升至今年4月的5,060億美元。淨資金流入在2024年第四季已經超越了2021年的高位,扭轉了之前下滑的趨勢。事實上,自2024年以來,香港的資金淨流入創下了自2000年有紀錄以來的新高。
資金流入通常與資產市場表現關係密切,因爲資金流入代表着對港元資產有更強勁需求。展望未來,資產市場帶來的正面財富效應或有助於改善消費者信心。其次,資金流入也有助於降低本地利率。儘管目前尚不確定本地利率與美國利率之間的息差能否維持,但隨着聯儲局今年繼續減息,本地利率應會維持下降趨勢。低利率將再次支撐消費者信心和整體經濟。
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