《大行》摩通:本地地产股首选太古地产(01972.HK)、恒地(00012.HK)及领展(00823.HK) 未来仍有催化剂
摩根大通发表研究报告指,自6月中旬以来,本港地产股已跑赢恒生指数达8%。仅在上日(25日)当天,该板块上升3%(恒生指数增加1%),主要原因包括:(1)市场对美国可能提前降息的憧憬升温;(2)板块轮动至高股息或落后板块,如香港地产(事实上,即使经过近期上涨,香港地产年初至今表现仍比恒生指数同期表现低出1%);(3) 香港银行同业拆息(HIBOR)近两个月来保持在1%以下;(4) 南向资金持仓略有增加(从5月初的7.2%增至最新的7.6%);(5)在较小程度上,近期住宅项目销售去化率良好的正面消息,而摩通也观察到长期投资者的兴趣增加。该行又指,有些股票(尤其新地(00016.HK))的估值已经相当高了。
摩通表示,从股息收益率差额角度显示,认为该板块目前价格交易于历史平均值以下0.5个标准差,若以低于1个标准差为基准,则表示未来还有9%的上涨空间。摩通对该板块的首选仍为太古地产(01972.HK)、恒地(00012.HK)和领展(00823.HK)。摩通认为,即使该三只股票今年至今已分别上涨30%、28%和37%,但它们仍提供超过6%的股息收益率,且未来仍有催化剂。
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