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《大行》摩通:本地地產股首選太古地產(01972.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)及領展(00823.HK) 未來仍有催化劑
摩根大通發表研究報告指,自6月中旬以來,本港地產股已跑贏恆生指數達8%。僅在上日(25日)當天,該板塊上升3%(恆生指數增加1%),主要原因包括:(1)市場對美國可能提前降息的憧憬升溫;(2)板塊輪動至高股息或落後板塊,如香港地產(事實上,即使經過近期上漲,香港地產年初至今表現仍比恆生指數同期表現低出1%);(3) 香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)近兩個月來保持在1%以下;(4) 南向資金持倉略有增加(從5月初的7.2%增至最新的7.6%);(5)在較小程度上,近期住宅項目銷售去化率良好的正面消息,而摩通也觀察到長期投資者的興趣增加。該行又指,有些股票(尤其新地(00016.HK))的估值已經相當高了。 摩通表示,從股息收益率差額角度顯示,認為該板塊目前價格交易於歷史平均值以下0.5個標準差,若以低於1個標準差為基準,則表示未來還有9%的上漲空間。摩通對該板塊的首選仍為太古地產(01972.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)和領展(00823.HK)。摩通認為,即使該三隻股票今年至今已分別上漲30%、28%和37%,但它們仍提供超過6%的股息收益率,且未來仍有催化劑。
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