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《大行》麥格理:關注中資股下半年盈利穩定性 留意三主題 看好受惠內需的海底撈及周大福等
麥格理發表中國市場策略報告,中美貿易戰暫停為重新審視中國投資提供機會,關稅對MSCI中國指數成份股的銷售影響有限,但消費降級、企業創新及政策主題仍具吸引力。就美中關稅概率方面,該行認為平均關稅水平最有可能穩定在40%至60%,高於過去五年的約20%,指關稅確定性對供應鏈更為重要。 該行對中國本地政策展望預期較低:(1)房地產市場逐步穩定、(2)重啟本地需求補貼、(3)進一步推進資本市場改革。2025年下半年關注焦點,中國推動非美出口;增加國內補貼;更多A股企業赴港上市。該行認為2025年下半年策略方面,相關價值並不明顯,建議關注每股盈利穩定性。 麥格理表示,關注中資股下半年每股盈利穩定性,第一主題留意內地消費者的消費降級:補貼提振近期零售數據,但低價趨勢持續,宜尋找具抗壓消費行業的贏家,如百勝中國(YUMC.US)、美的(00300.HK)、泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)。 第二主題是留意油價與美元波動方面:地緣政治可能推高油價波動性並伴隨美元走弱,該行按相關性分析發現:銀行、保險及互聯網企業為潛在避險選擇。第三是留意優質本地需求贏家:投資者應避開受關稅新聞波動影響的股份風險。該行篩選的內地本地需求優質企業包括:茅台(600519.SH)、格力(000651.SZ)、周大福(01929.HK)、海底撈(06862.HK)。 麥格理列出穩定、優質增長、內地本地需求主題投資組合(Stable growth/quality + local demand basket ),其中港股包括紫金(02899.HK)、周大福、海底撈。
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