《大行》麥格理降周大福(01929.HK)目標價至14.1港元 評級「跑贏大市」
麥格理研究報告,預計周大福(01929.HK)2025財年下半年收入按年下降15%。營運利潤按年增長15%,超出該行預期13%及市場共識11%。淨利潤按年增長74%,超出該行預期24%。麥格理相信,周大福憑藉金飾需求復甦及效率提升,2026財年將實現穩健的盈利增長,將周大福置於精選買入名單,予「跑贏大市」評級。
該行表示,得益於金價上漲及有利的產品組合,預計周大福2025財年下半年毛利率按年擴張4.8個百分點至28%。營運利潤率按年上升4.1個百分點。對於2026財年,因金價上漲的效益預計將逐步消退,周大福預測毛利率將減少約80至130個基點,而營運利潤率(OPM)將有較溫和的按年下降60至100個基點。該行認爲,若金價恢復上漲趨勢,其營運利潤率指引存在上行空間。
麥格理將周大福2026及2027財年淨收入預測分別下調1.6%和1.9%,以反映全年指引及金價波動因素。基於2026財年15倍預測市盈率不變,該行將周大福目標價下調1.4%至14.1元。
該行將周大福2026及2027財年息稅前利潤率預測分別下調0.2個百分點及0.2個百分點,以反映較低的毛利率估計及營運槓桿。
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