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植耀輝:LABUBU熱潮沒法擋
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,上週日與一眾好友相聚,席上無所不談,不過討論最熱烈竟然是「LABUBU」,由其正確讀法以至全球各地銷售情報皆一一談及。當然大家覺得最遺憾的是未能一早洞悉先機買入泡泡瑪特(09992.HK),即使朋友曾經持有,但亦早已獲利沽出。其實又有多少人預計到「LABUBU」可以在如此短時間內風靡全球呢?席上亦有朋友提出「LABUBU」這一IP可能會像HelloKitty一樣能歷久不衰,惟現時泡泡瑪特市值已接近3,600億港元,較日本上市之Bandai及Sanrio (市值分別約為1,750億及943億港元)還要高,究竟是泡泡瑪特估值過高還是另外兩者偏低,值得大家好好思考一下。 而由「LABUBU」引發之「盲盒」熱潮,越來越公司亦有意分一杯羹,當中包括名創優品(09896.HK)旗下潮流玩具業務「HOT TOY」。名創上週亦宣布,就HOT TOY潛在分拆上市可能性進行初步評估,以優化股東價值。根據首季業績表現,名創品牌收入增長16.5%,而HOT TOY增幅則達到58.9%,同時淨新增門店120間至280間。早前便有報道指名創於今年3月品牌戰略升級發布會上表示,目標是未來五年在全球100個核心城市開設超過1,000間HOT TOY門店。在名創門店增長動力減弱之情況下,HOT TOY未來發展似乎更具憧憬。 只是HOT TOY現時收入貢獻仍相當有限,今年首季僅3.4億元人民幣,相比之下去年泡泡瑪特收入便達到130億元人民幣,反映兩者在規模上存在相當大距離;另一問題是泡泡瑪特之成功有賴於其自家IP「LABUBU」,反觀HOT TOY亦有自加IP,但卻未見掀起熱潮,收入主要還是須靠IP授權產品,意味競爭優勢並不突出,所以即使分拆消息有利名創短期股價表現,但亦不建議高追。 至於港股方面,恆指本週突破兩萬四關口後一度衝高至24,439點,中美貿易談判消息繼續主導大市去向。執筆之時相關協議仍須待中美元首批准,一日未有最終定案及詳情,恆指暫亦未必可以突破24,500點水平。另如早前所指,A股去向亦相當關鍵,只是現時A股尚未能擺脫區間上落格局,故恆指短期將有較大可能性於24,000點附近整固。 (筆者並未持有相關股份)~
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