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《大行》國泰君安國際:短期優質紅利行業仍是港股組合「壓艙石」仍有較高配置價值
國泰君安國際發表策略報告表示,往前看,短期港股受海外關稅及流動性擾動,隨著國內政策加碼作用,經濟持續復甦,長期來看港股估值水平有擴張空間,新的上漲動能逐漸形成,應重視科技行業。儘管特朗普關稅政策仍可能影響港股預期,包括美國債務上限突破後的發債行為可能帶來的港股流動性波動,但整體的影響正在邊際減弱。短期以央國企等為代表的優質紅利行業(銀行、電訊和公用事業)仍然是投資組合的「壓艙石」。中長期來看,科技創新引領新質生產力發展,是中國經濟增長和港股上漲的新動能。 目前港股股指估值水平仍然處於偏低的水平,未來有望繼續修復上升。當前,恆生指數動態市盈率為10.6倍,近10年歷史分位為41.5%;恆生科技指數動態市盈率為17.3倍,歷史分位為21.4%。大部分海外主要股指估值水平高於港股,標普500指數動態市盈率為22.1倍,歷史分位為84.6%。MSCI新興市場指數動態市盈率為12.7倍,歷史分位為75.3%。若恆指和恆生科技指數均修復至65%歷史分位,則恆指動態市盈率將從10.6倍上升至11.5倍;恆生科技指數動態市盈率將由17.3倍上升至29.2倍。 短期優質紅利行業仍然是投資組合的壓艙石。歷史經驗顯示,電訊和公用事業等紅利行業能憑借其穩定現金流和抗周期性,在不確定性較高的時期往往能夠跑贏大市。從紅利指數成分股的行業分佈來看,紅利行業主要來自銀行、公用事業、電訊和保險等行業,權重佔比超過55%。在股息再投資的模式下,恆生高股息率指數近10年累計上漲接近120%,跑贏恆生指數。當前恆生高股息率指數的股息率超過8個百分點,遠高於10年期美債孳息率水平,仍有較高的配置價值。 中長期來看,科技創新引領新質生產力發展,是中國經濟增長和港股上漲的新動能。2022年底ChatGPT-3.5誕生後,海外投資者擁抱美股科技巨頭,科技巨頭股價引領美股市場。中國企業DeepSeek在2025年初發布的AI大模型突破,標誌著中國AI水平到達世界第一梯隊。互聯網、芯片硬件和中高端製造等科技巨頭盈利有望在AI科技發展中持續獲益,科技板塊盈利增長確定性更高。隨著局勢的逐步明朗,逢低切換風格,加大配置科技相關行業是獲得超額收益的關鍵。(wl/j) ~
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