《大行》建銀國際:香港市場流動性趨緊需謹慎 料恆指24,000點遇阻力
建銀國際研究報告指,香港市場流動性指數過去一個月下滑,支持指數的是更強的新興市場資金流、恢復正常的市場波動性及更低的美匯指數,但SOFR與HIBOR利差大幅擴大以及南向資金走弱則拖累指數。
該行指,港股自4月初美國宣布對等關稅以來展現出充足的韌性,目前已成功修復此前的下跌裂口。在月初一籃子金融政策利好、中美互減關稅進入實質性談判階段以及整體超預期的首季業績支持下,預計恆指短期內有望站穩22,800點關口。然而,該行亦註意到近期資金流入明顯放緩,特別是南向資金呈現出較顯著的淨流出趨勢。此外,美港息差大幅走闊,以及近期多個大型IPO密集上市導致市場資金抽緊,對短期市場流動性亦構成一定壓力。因此,預計恆指在24,000點附近將面臨較強阻力,市場可能維持震盪盤整的格局,投資操作上建議維持謹慎。
展望後市,該行認為港股進一步的上漲空間將主要取決於三個關鍵因素,包括中美在90天關稅暫緩期結束前能否在經貿談判中取得實質性突破、次季經濟數據能否繼續超出市場預期,以及美聯儲是否在第三季重啟降息。
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