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中廣核礦業(01164.HK)曾飆逾三成 大摩指其與母公司籤天然鈾新定價框架協議超出預期
阿思達克 06-04 11:28
中廣核礦業(01164.HK)今早(4日)股價高開逾14%後,盤中曾高見2.18元一度彈高31.3%,最新報2.09元上揚25.3%,成交額激增至11.81億元。摩根士丹利指中廣核礦業與母公司籤天然鈾2026年至2028年新定價框架協議超出預期。 大摩發表報告,中廣核礦業公佈2026年至2028年與母公司的新定價公式草案,沿用上一合同框架,但有兩大更新:固定部分價格(每磅天然鈾)首年調整至94.22美元(上一合同爲61.78美元),現貨價格佔比從60%提高至70%。這超出市場預期,因固定價格顯着提高,且現貨佔比增加可捕捉現貨價格上漲潛力。該行預計市場對此消息反應積極,因新公式下收益高於市場預估,且收益確定性提高。 中廣核礦業新定價公式需在特別股東大會上批準,時間尚未確定。就財務正面影響方面,該行指2026年至2028年新公式下實現的平均售價(ASP)相對該行最新預估分別爲低1.1%、高1.6%及高2.6%,淨利潤相較預估分別爲低2.4%、高3.4%及高5.6%。2026年負面變動主要因之前低現貨價格假設(70美元對比2025年6月4日的72美元),而新公式現貨佔比增至70%。總體而言,新公式對公司收益有正面影響。同時,2026年至2027年淨利潤較市場預估分別高17.4%和22.7%。 該行表示,維持中廣核礦業「增持」及目標價1.64元。
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