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《大行》高盛降名創優品(09896.HK)目標價至46元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 05-26 11:35
高盛發表報告,指撇除永輝超市(601933.SH)聯營虧損但計及可轉債/永輝投資相關現金利息開支後,降名創優品(09896.HK)(MNSO.US)在2025至2027年經調整純利預測平均約10%,以反映經營開支預測被上調,H股目標價從50港元下調至46港元,美股目標價由25.7美元下調至23.4美元,維持「買入」評級。 該行指,受海外市場超預期推動,名創中國及Top Toy業績符合預期,名創優品首季整體銷售額按年增長19%至44億元人民幣,略高於高盛預測的43億元;其中美妝類產品佔銷售額40%,玩具類佔30%,生活雜貨類佔30%。Miniso品牌方面,中國內地銷售額按年增長9%;海外業務銷售額16億元,按年增長30%,勝該行預期。Top Toy 收入按年增長59%,與高盛預期一致。 該行表示,名創優品首季經調整營業利潤按年下滑5%,較高盛低9%,意味由於直銷業務敞口擴大,經調整營業利潤率收窄4.2個百分點。業績公布後股價反應負面,管理層維持今年年營收指引,但因業務模式轉型(更多DTC門店)對邊際利潤的語調趨軟化。 展望第二季度,管理層預計收入按年增長18%至21%,其中名創中國增速提升至低雙位數,海外業務和Top Toy分別按年增長25%至30%、70%至80%。營業利潤率方面,預計按年跌幅較第一季度收窄,儘管 DTC和新門店仍有稀釋效應,但基數效應疊加效率提升,壓力趨緩。 該行認為DTC業務投資有望逐步顯效並利好未來盈利,而名創優品計劃從5月起推出S級IP(即最受歡迎系列),例如近期配合電影推出的史迪奇IP產品,或成為正面催化劑。
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