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研報掘金丨長江證券:維持伊利股份“買入”評級,商譽減值落地25Q1盈利改善

長江證券研報指出,伊利股份(600887.SH)24年歸母淨利潤84.53億元(同比-18.94%),25年Q1歸母淨利潤48.74億元(同比-17.71%)。商譽減值致24Q4虧損,春節錯期費用前置、成本紅利延續,25Q1毛銷差大幅改善。供給側拐點在即,競爭改善可期,液奶趨勢性改善,後續基數壓力減弱;股東回報價值凸顯。原奶價格逐步企穩,而乳品需求有望隨着後續刺激政策的落地而持續復甦,行業有望進入良性競爭。疊加公司持續推行精益化管理,費效比提升,毛銷差改善可期。2025Q2及後續季度的基數走低,收入端呈現加速改善的概率較大。隨着資本開支進入良性穩態的通道,股東回報有望持續改善,2024年度公司擬向派發現金股利77.26億元(金額保持提升),分紅率達91.40%。維持“買入”評級。

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