港股異動丨阿里巴巴半日收升超5%,大行稱未來有多重股價催升因素
阿里巴巴(9988.HK)半日收升5.27%報76.95港元。富瑞最新發表研究報吿指出,雖然中國宏觀經濟不明朗,但阿里巴巴未來有多重股價催升因素,包括看好阿里巴巴電商核心CMR(用户管理收入)與GMV(商品交易總額)的增長差距即將收窄,阿里巴巴有望8月完成香港主要上市、9月納入港股通,以至回購計劃繼續進行,都有利其股價。富瑞維持阿里巴巴目標價112港元,買入評級。富瑞指出,目前中國網購趨勢包括:1)除低價外,投資回報率(ROI)、GMV和用户體驗一樣重要;2)免費退款政策需滿足更多要求;3)由於基數較高,短視頻的市場份額增長故事預計不會對行業整體造成太大沖擊,“貨架式電商”較短視頻發展更重要;4)關於產品退貨政策更改,2024年將全面反映電商公司自2023年下半年開始實施的多項措施對配送福利的影響,預計2025年將趨於正常化。富瑞指,從9月開始,天貓以0.6%軟件服務費取代原有每年3萬或6萬元固定費用,可對CMR有正面影響。此外,阿里為商家提供支持措施,包括:1)年度GMV低於12萬元的商家可獲得服務費退款;2)從2024年9月至12月,約100個類別(如電子產品和奢侈品)的服務費上限為60元(而非基於0.6%);3)GMV在12萬至100萬元之間的商家,在9月至12月期間可獲相當於服務費50%的福利券,用於廣吿相關支出。在年度收入影響方面,富瑞假設年度GMV總額約為8萬億元,考慮到已完成交易的0.6%,服務費估計約為310億元。假設有50萬天貓商家,年度固定服務費約為230億元。年度收入影響約為80億元(約佔商品交易總額的0.1%)。回購方面,阿里巴巴在2024年上半年總計回購106億美元股份,約減少5%股份,尚有261億美元回購金額待使用。

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