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《大行報告》招銀國際升雲音樂(09899.HK)目標價至106.5元 核心音樂業務穩固
阿思達克 03-05 12:17
招銀國際發報告,指雲音樂(09899.HK)核心音樂業務穩固,看好其核心業務未來發展及毛利率擴張,將其目標價從99.5元調升至106.5元,並維持「買入」評級。 據雲音樂去年業績顯示,公司總收入按年跌13%至78.7億元人民幣,與招銀國際及市場預期相若。其中,下半年收入按年降16%,主要由於社交娛樂業務調整,令相關收入按年跌42%。不過,由於毛利率按年大幅增加12.3個百分點,雲音樂去年調整後淨利潤達到8.19億人民幣,高於招銀國際及市場普遍預期。 招銀國際特別看好雲音樂的核心音樂業務前景。2023年下半年,雲音樂的在線音樂收入按年增長22%,達到23億人民幣,佔下半年總收入的59%,主要受訂閱業務的強勁增長(按年增長24%)和廣告變現能力的加強的帶動。2023年,雲音樂的平均每月付費用戶按年增15%,達到4,410萬,付費比例按年上升1.2個百分點,至21.4%。 儘管社交娛樂業務面臨壓力,但招銀國際預計,隨著雲音樂更加聚焦於核心音樂業務,其在線音樂收入在2024年將實現17%的年增長。此外,雲音樂通過AI技術提升用戶的音樂和消費體驗,並持續豐富內容庫,截至2023年底,音樂曲目數量按年增長28%至1.49億首。 從盈利能力來看,由於音樂變現能力的提升、內容成本及收益分配比率的改善,雲音樂的總體毛利率在2023年下半年按年擴大12.8個百分點,達到28.7%。招銀國際預計,雲音樂的毛利率將在2024至2026財年進一步上升,並預測其調整後淨利潤將在此期間以28%的年複合增長率增長,認為其目前相當於預測2024財年市盈率18倍的估值具吸引力。
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