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《大行報告》匯豐研究降新世界(00017.HK)目標價至8.8元 尚未走出困境
匯豐研究發表報告指,新世界發展(00017.HK)截至去年12月底止中期業績最大負面因素,是中期息按年削減57%至20仙。該行預計其股價將做出負面反應,投資人可能愈來愈擔心新世界需要更長的時間才能成功去槓桿化。截至去年12月末,其經調整淨負債比率仍高達81%,而去年6月末為86%(假設永續債券被視作借貸)。中期持續經營業務淨利潤按年減13%至5億元。 報告稱,如果新世界能夠重新部署資本以促進增長而非去槓桿,該行對其前景將有更建設性看法,而當前尚未走出困境,維持其「減持」評級,目標價由9.2元下調至8.8元。 該行認為,最近的房地產政策應有助於改善集團的銷售表現。房地產銷售的復甦將會是改善現金流的有效途徑,但由於土地成本高昂,新項目的獲利能力可能較低。零售方面,由於K11 MUSEA和K11 Art Mall表現強勁,其投資物業租金按年增12%至27億元。雖然市場疲弱,其在內地的合約銷售額仍保持韌性,上半財年實現超過76億元人民幣,約佔2024財年銷售目標的51%。 該行將集團2024至26財年各年盈測下調介乎8.6%至9.1%,以反映較高的財政成本等。同期每股分派預測則下調介乎47.4%至83%。資產淨值(NAV)估算則下調4.2%至每股35.6元,主因淨債務增加抵銷了來自零售及酒店業務資產估值略為上升。
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