高盛及大摩等預計明年中國房地產市場持續低迷
高盛、大摩及瑞銀等十間投行及券商認為,中國住房建設在明年將持續低迷,並且會拖累經濟增長,顯示政府穩定房地產業的努力不足以扭轉下行趨勢,這意味著中國房地產建設將會創紀錄地連續三年收縮。
最悲觀的高盛經預計,明年房地產固定資產投資將出現雙位數跌幅,房地產市場持續低迷將令中國實際GDP增長減少一個百分點;大摩及瑞銀則分別預計下跌7%及5%;招銀國際亦預計中國明年房地產投資將下降7%。
根據中信首席經濟學家明明和其他經濟學家指,悲觀情緒的主要原因是今年房地產新開工項目大幅下降,導致竣工項目有進一步下降的空間,而房地產銷售下降亦令開發商動工的動力減弱。高盛及瑞銀均預計明年房地產銷售將下降5%。
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