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惠譽:銷售額降幅收窄 惟中國購房者情緒仍疲弱
惠譽評級認為,受惠於密集出台的房地產產業鬆綁政策,2023年9、10月全國新建商品住宅(新房)銷售額較去年同期降幅收窄。不過,在就業與收入前景尚不明朗的背景下,購房者情緒持續疲弱。此外,鑑於更多房企面臨流動性趨緊,購房者對民營房企能否按時、保質交房的憂慮繼續令房地產市場承壓。 根據國家統計局和中國指數研究院的數據,過去兩個月,高能級城市的房價表現仍顯著強於低能級城市。因此,高能級城市銷售額更具韌性,而低能級城市的購房者則秉承觀望態度。 二手房價格按月和按年變化幅度較新樓價格變化幅度更為顯著,因為在政策大幅鬆綁後,更多房主急於出售其現有住房,此舉旨在為其改善型購屋提供資金來源,或出於房價進一步下跌的預期。 惠譽認為,許多購房者對項目交付存有顧慮,因而避開購買新房。鑑於中國許多新房皆為期房且由民營房企開發建造,此種顧慮導致新房的實際供給大幅縮減。龍頭民營房企近期的流動性危機又進一步加劇了前述憂慮。另一方面,二手房價格跌幅擴大、二手房掛牌量激增疊加交付問題,吸引了部分原本欲購入新房的購房者轉向二手房市場。
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