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《大行報告》里昂下調李寧(02331.HK)目標價至26元 料品牌溢價不再快速成長
阿思達克 11-27 12:17
部份體育用品股今日(27日)股價受壓,李寧(02331.HK)半日下滑3.9%報21.9元創逾三年半低。里昂發表行業報告,料明年行業增長將進一步放緩,估計代工生產商(OEM)會跑贏品牌商,該行重申對李寧「跑贏大市」投資評級,但下調對其目標價由34元降至26元,相當於預測未來12個月市盈率13.5倍(此前予18倍估值)。 該行指,李寧2023年第三季零售流水(Sell Through)按年增長錄中單位數,下調2023財年銷售指引,均令市場感到沮喪,管理層計劃減少2023年第四季對分銷商銷量,以幫助緩解分銷商的庫存壓力。因此,李寧公司2023財年的銷售增長指引從13%至17%左右,下調至按年單位數增長。李寧於「雙11」電商銷售額較去年同期錄單位數成長,增幅依然不大,而折扣則較去年同期持平。該行更以「不得不吞的苦果」(a bitter pill to swallow)形容李寧目前處境。 里昂預計李寧於2023年下半年銷售額將年增長3%,下半年毛利率將年小幅提升60個基點,維持2023財年銷售額年增 8%(2023年下半年增長3%)的預測,下半年毛利率料按年同期小幅擴張至47.5%,而全年毛利率料與2022財年基本一致。該預期李寧於2023年至2025年的銷售額及純利複合年增長率各為10%及14%。 就營收增長而言,該行認為平均售價將不再是驅動因素,而銷量仍將是關鍵。進入2024年,李寧將更重視中端價位細分,推出每雙售價400至500元人民幣的籃球鞋、約300元人民幣以上的運動休閒跑鞋。品牌溢價不再快速成長。這是由於2024財年銷售成長和毛利率復甦軌跡的可見度較低,而巴黎奧運臨近時,廣告費用支出預期不斷上升,料營運槓桿預期適度。
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