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人民幣即期暴漲718點 收報7.1747兌一美元創三個半月高
在美匯指數及美債收益率雙雙走低下,人匯11月以來持續反彈。人民幣兌美元即期今日(20日)暴漲718點,收報7.1747兌一美元創三個半月高。截至下午5點28分,人民幣夜盤升599點;離岸人民幣亦升449點,報7.1714兌一美元,較在岸價高出33點呈倒掛。 內媒引述國泰君安認為,人民幣的快速升值背後固然有外部因素,即由於美聯儲加息周期結束預期帶來的美元走弱,但也有一些令市場不解的地方,尤其是從10月中旬開始,離岸人民幣的融資成本開始顯著下降。 離岸人民幣的融資成本開始明顯走低,這意味著做空人民幣的成本也同步下滑,但離岸人民幣並沒有出現部分投資者擔憂的貶值,反而借著近期的美元走弱出現了一波強力的升值。國泰君安(香港)認為,中間價扮演了「穩定器」的作用,由於人民幣兌美元的中間價一直相對穩定,空頭仍然對政策意圖較為忌憚,沒有輕易在這一區域下注,而是希望等待更加清晰的信號。與此同時,熟悉人民幣季節性的交易員會知道,人民幣在年底的最後兩個月傾向走強,這可能與很多企業的結匯習慣有關。 另內媒引述平安證券策略團隊指出,從季節性來看,年底通常是結匯的高峰,這有助於對沖匯率的貶值壓力。尤其是今年以來,企業結匯意願較低,銀行代客結售匯規模明顯低於往年。一旦企業年底由於財務需求集中結匯,這有助於提振人民幣匯率。
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