《大行報告》瑞銀下調鋼材及水泥股目標價 對行業看法仍謹慎
瑞銀發表報告指,對中國水泥及鋼材行業保持審慎,雖然第三季鋼廠盈利顯著改善,但估計第四季未能收支平衡,主要因為鐵礦石及焦煤價格回升,自9月底行業盈利能力下跌,10月中開始虧損,估計行業需要時間恢復供需平衡。
水泥行業方面,第三季每噸毛利按季調整,回復去年同期水平,主要受市場價格競爭影響,9至10月表現疲弱,第四季盈利能力亦受影響。該行下調鞍鋼股份(00347.HK)及馬鞍山鋼鐵(00323.HK)盈利預測,以反映成本通脹壓力及行業供應紀律失衡,同時亦下調其他水泥企業盈利預測(詳見另文),以反映價格競爭加劇。
該行認為,海螺水泥(00914.HK)、中國建材(03323.HK)、鞍鋼及馬鋼的估值已處於低谷,主要因為基本因素疲弱及第四季前景令人失望,對該四隻股份持「中性」評級,另外最看淡華潤水泥(01313.HK) ,維持其「沽售」評級,以反映中國南部地區的市場供應情況。
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