《大行報告》海通國際下調李寧(02331.HK)目標價至40元 評級維持「優於大市」
海通國際發表報告指,李寧(02331.HK)第三季流水收入位於該行預期的低端,經銷商同店壓力較大,主要因為庫存壓力和竄貨影響;第三季零售流水按年實現中單位數正增長,其中李寧線下流水高單位數,被線上負的低單位數拖累,一方面因為今年線上總體較為疲軟,另一方面因為去年相對高基數;線下直營渠道流水增長逾20%,批發渠道低單位數增長。
該行又指,目前李寧更關注經營質量,短中期優先折扣和庫存問題,不強調量的增長。同時加大力度處理線上線下竄貨行為,有堵有疏,控制貨源,梳理與經銷商關係,主要措施是第三季末起,降低對經銷商的出貨壓力,匹配經銷商動銷和進貨水平,將對經銷商收入貢獻有一定影響。
此外,李寧在第三季以來,把控了大店開店節奏和效率,總體謹慎開店。高線城市將以現有店舖為主,第二、三線城市持續優化,三線以下城市仍有空白區域可以增加覆蓋。因此,管理層下調全年收入低於雙位數,利潤率可能不改善。
該行表示,將李寧在2023至25年的各年收入預測降介乎8%至12%,分別下調至276.6億、309.1億及346億元人民幣(下同);而扣非歸母淨利潤分別為35.8億、43億及52.3億元,降幅略大於收入。該行表示,將其目標價下調29%至40港元,維持其評級為「優於大市」。
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