《大行報告》中金上調網易(09999.HK)目標價至202元 料第三季非通用會計準測淨利潤跌5%至71億人民幣
中金發表報告指出,網易(09999.HK)(NTES.US)將於11月16日披露第三季業績,該行預期公司第三季收入按年增長15%至280億元人民幣;非公認會計準則(Non-GAAP)下,營業利潤按年升47%至81億元人民幣,而淨利潤跌5%至71億元人民幣,主要由於去年同期因匯兌及投資收入等影響導致基數較高。
該行認為,網易多款重磅手遊驅動第三季按年增長,其中料移動遊戲收入按年增長35%至160億元人民幣,主要由於《逆水寒》手遊驅動,產品6月30日上線,對第三季提供完整季度貢獻,該行預期考慮遞延後實際確認收入或有望超過40億元人民幣;《巔峰極速》6月下旬上線借助多渠道營運,前期流水表現超預期,該行估計季度內有望確認超過10億元人民幣收入;存量旗艦產品穩健營運,把穩基本盤。 同時,端遊方面《永劫無間》7月轉免後亦有活躍用戶數回升。 雲音樂及有道方面,該行預期第三季收入分別下降19%及增長11%。
此外,該行指網易自今年首季以來,其自研遊戲佔比提升、渠道優化等驅動毛利率提升,有關趨勢有望在第三季延續,預計季內毛利率達60%。費用端看,公司借助內容向推廣策略、抖音直播等方式實現流水高效轉化,銷售費用率整體可控,該行預計第三季銷售費用率為14%。研發投入方面,該行認為亦穩定持續,具體包括多款在研遊戲項目的常態化推進、有道大模型等投入建設等,預計第三季研發費用按年增長9%,研發費率15.5%。
新品方面 ,該行建議關注 《燕雲十六聲》(開放世界武俠遊戲,已獲雙端版號,公司表示明年第二季前有希望上線;《射雕》(開放世界武俠 RPG遊戲,已於10月26日宣布獲雙端版號,已進行三輪測試);《永劫無間手遊》等產品研發、測試進展及定檔時間。 海外市場方面,該行建議關注已在國內上線的旗艦產品出海進程,其中《蛋仔派對》9月登陸東南亞手遊下載榜第二名,實現首月超過357萬次的下載量;海外第一方、第三方工作室新品研發進展。
考慮到網易多款新遊流水表現好於該行此前預期,上調今明兩年公司Non-GAAP淨利潤預測4.9%及5.5%,至311億及323億元人民幣 ,維持「跑贏行業」評級,對H股目標價上調3%至202元,對美股目標價上調6%至132美元。
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