大行評級|大摩:下調港鐵目標價至29港元 評級“減持”
摩根士丹利發表報吿指出,由於港鐵載客量逐步恢復、票價上升有限和成本上升,預示公司短期經營槓桿有限,今明兩年的鐵路業務EBITDA利潤率預測為20%及28%,仍遠低於2018年的34%水平。儘管港鐵鐵路和租賃業務正常化,但由於2023至2025年期間每年140億港元的龐大維修開支,該行料港鐵的經常性自由現金流收益率(不包括髮展物業業務)較低,僅為1%。
該行將港鐵2024及2025年每股盈利預測分別下調18%及上調9%,以反映發展物業入賬延遲和經常性利潤預測下調。另該行對港鐵今明兩年每股盈測,較市場預期低出介乎13%至32%。該行認為港鐵估值仍不具吸引力,對其目標價由37港元下調至29港元,評級“減持”。
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