惠譽:寧德時代(300750.SZ)海外市場地位強勁 助其紓解國內競爭壓力
惠譽評級表示,中國電池製造商寧德時代(300750.SZ)在中國以外地區的市場地位愈加強勁,有助其緩解國內市場競爭加劇及車企向上整合帶來的壓力;同時,憑藉領先技術和強勁的成本控制,公司受電池價格下降趨勢的影響有限。惠譽預期,寧德時代充裕的經營性現金流將爲其在技術創新、全球產能建設和新業務拓展方面的投資提供支持,進而夯實其作爲中國最大獨立電池供應商及全球市場龍頭的強大市場地位。
惠譽認爲,儘管寧德時代第三季的營收按年增速放緩且面臨價格競爭壓力,但利潤率頗具韌性,顯示出其在電動汽車價值產業鏈中的穩固地位。受國內純電動汽車需求弱於預期及競爭加劇的影響,寧德時代第三季營收按年增速自2023年上半年的67.5%下降至8.3%。然而,得益於原材料成本下降及海外銷售貢獻上升,第三季公司毛利率仍從去年同期的19%升至22%。
此外,惠譽預期,中期內寧德時代的財務狀況將保持強勁,預測2024至2026年間公司的營收將保持兩位數的年均複合增長率。寧德時代不斷擴大的EBITDA規模開始超過資本支出,這應有助其自由現金流在2024年趨向中性,並支持其評級水平。爲擴大供應商和客戶羣體,公司仍有可能對上遊資源和下遊車企進行戰略投資,但惠譽認爲此舉受到其充裕槓桿空間的支持,且該些投資應有助於業務的長期穩定。
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