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《大行報告》富瑞下調水泥股目標價 降潤泥(01313.HK)評級至「跑輸大市」
阿思達克 10-20 10:26
富瑞發表研究報告指出,由於成本支持或/和季節性因素,部分商品價格回升。內地製造業採購經理指數(PMI)於9月報50.2,終於步入擴張區間,而生產者價格指數(PPI)按年下跌2.5%,跌幅收窄。該行認為,需求動能尚未加速,但持續的貨幣寬鬆可能有助於經濟恢復通貨再膨脹。 建築材料方面,該行指水泥股並無像往常一樣受惠於旺季的利好因素,自9月以來的每日產量基本持平於60%至62%,惟庫存仍高企於73%(相對於平均為60%),儘管黃金周後已有所下調。國家水泥價格於近一個月以來平均上升每噸5至10元人民幣,主要受煤炭格價上升影響。基於對前景持謹慎態度,該行對潤泥(01313.HK)評級由「持有」下調至「跑輸大市」,目標價由2.86元降至1.36元。此外,該行亦下調若干水泥股目標價(見另表)。 有色金屬方面,該行認為由於美元強勢,尤其是對美國軟著陸和利率在更長時間內保持高企的預期,LME銅價由9月中旬的每噸8,400萬美元回落至7,900萬美元,而10月中旬LME銅庫存量從9月底的17萬噸以下增至約18萬噸水平。該行料10月除銅價下跌刺激訂單外,整體需求尚未出現太大增量。 煤炭方面,黃金周後北方三大港口庫存略降,整體為平均水平。在冬季因暖氣的季節性因素補庫存之前,市場將主要由非電力/工業需求拉動,市場相對平衡,帶來適度支持。 紙張方面,儘管供應充足的風險依然存在,但由於正處於「雙11」和年終假期前的旺季,庫存仍處於低位,預計短期內市場表現良好。
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