《大行報告》匯豐研究料本港樓價今年持平 明年上半年跌5% 地產股喜好長實、信置及九置
匯豐研究發表報告指,本港地產商上半年平均核心盈利按年下跌1.1%,跌幅較去年下半年的16.7%收窄,主要因為租務表現改善,但大部分被物業銷售減少及財務成本上升所抵銷,預期下半年復甦步伐溫和,零售市場正適當復甦,但住宅市場氣氛負面,寫字樓市場亦未回穩,在經濟疲弱及按揭利率上升下,整體樓市維持疲弱。
該行指,今年初樓價的升勢會失去動力,近期按揭利率上升令情況進一步轉差,推遲潛在復甦,對負債比率較高的發展商審慎,預期未來幾個月樓市復甦較預期差,樓價今年持平,明年上半年再跌5%。
該行偏好防守性股份,例如長實(01113.HK)及信置(00083.HK),強勁的資產負債表,令兩間公司在困難的市況下,有較佳定位。另外亦偏好九龍倉置業(01997.HK),認為公司的盈利增長清晰。該行對恆地(00012.HK)、冠君產業(02778.HK)及置地公司審慎,認為恆地盈利能見度較低,而冠君及置地則持有較多寫字樓業務。
股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價
長實(01113.HK) | 買入 | 53.1元
恆地(00012.HK) | 減持 | 16.9元
信置(00083.HK) | 買入 | 10.3元
新地(00016.HK) | 買入 | 100.3元
九龍倉置業(01997.HK) | 買入 | 47.4元
冠君產業(02778.HK) | 減持 | 2.2元
領展(00823.HK) | 買入 | 50.0元
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